Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.2%
Accrington
25.3%
Draw
41.5%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Accrington
vs
1.29
Burton
Markets
BTTS47.7%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.7%
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.1%
1-2
8.4%
0-0
7.9%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.6%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).