Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.5%
Lazio
29.7%
Draw
46.8%
Milan
Expected Goals (xG)
0.76
Lazio
vs
1.21
Milan
Markets
BTTS37.0%
Over 0.586.2%
Over 1.558.2%
Over 2.531.4%
Over 3.513.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.1%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
12.6%
1-0
10.9%
0-2
10.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
4.9%
0-3
4.1%
2-0
4.0%
1-3
3.1%
2-2
2.9%
0-4
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).