Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.6%
Freiburg
28.2%
Draw
34.2%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Freiburg
vs
1.26
Mainz
Markets
BTTS53.4%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.547.8%
Over 3.526.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
0-0
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
3.3%
3-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).