Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.8%
Spal
24.1%
Draw
57.1%
Napoli
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Spal
vs
1.64
Napoli
Markets
BTTS44.8%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.544.5%
Over 3.523.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.2%
0-2
11.5%
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.4%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
7.2%
0-3
6.3%
1-3
5.1%
2-1
4.7%
2-2
3.8%
2-0
2.9%
0-4
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).