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DHT: 10CSV

04 May 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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42.4%
Morecambe
25.1%
Draw
32.5%
Newport County

Expected Goals (xG)

1.41

Morecambe

vs
1.19

Newport County

Markets

BTTS52.1%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.548.2%
Over 3.526.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.3%
0-0
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).