Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.7%
Hartlepool
24.5%
Draw
32.8%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Hartlepool
vs
1.25
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS54.3%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.551.0%
Over 3.528.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
8.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
0-2
5.2%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).