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06 Oct 2024 · 13:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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74.1%
Lokomotiv Moskva
15.5%
Draw
10.5%
Krylya Sovetov

Expected Goals (xG)

2.94

Lokomotiv Moskva

vs
1.10

Krylya Sovetov

Markets

BTTS63.8%
Over 0.597.6%
Over 1.591.8%
Over 2.576.7%
Over 3.557.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.2%
2-0
7.6%
3-0
7.5%
1-1
6.4%
4-1
6.0%
4-0
5.5%
2-2
4.6%
1-0
4.5%
3-2
4.5%
5-1
3.5%
4-2
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).