Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.7%
Fakel
39.8%
Draw
40.5%
Orenburg
Expected Goals (xG)
0.53
Fakel
vs
0.88
Orenburg
Markets
BTTS25.6%
Over 0.574.4%
Over 1.542.7%
Over 2.517.0%
Over 3.55.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
25.6%
0-1
20.1%
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.6%
0-2
9.5%
1-2
5.0%
2-0
3.4%
2-1
3.0%
0-3
2.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-2
1.3%
0-4
0.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).