Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.9%
Santander
17.7%
Draw
17.4%
Ceuta
Expected Goals (xG)
2.50
Santander
vs
1.24
Ceuta
Markets
BTTS65.3%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.588.7%
Over 2.572.2%
Over 3.551.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.2%
3-1
7.7%
2-0
7.4%
1-1
7.3%
3-0
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
4-1
4.8%
3-2
4.8%
1-2
4.6%
4-0
3.9%
0-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).