Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.4%
Santa Clara
32.3%
Draw
31.4%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.92
Santa Clara
vs
0.83
Setubal
Markets
BTTS33.3%
Over 0.583.2%
Over 1.551.6%
Over 2.525.6%
Over 3.510.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
16.8%
1-0
16.6%
0-1
15.0%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
1-2
5.5%
2-2
2.5%
3-0
2.3%
3-1
1.9%
0-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).