Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →3.1%
Valladolid
8.0%
Draw
88.9%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
0.57
Valladolid
vs
3.40
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS42.1%
Over 0.598.0%
Over 1.590.7%
Over 2.575.7%
Over 3.556.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-3
12.4%
0-2
10.9%
0-4
10.5%
0-5
7.2%
1-3
7.0%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.2%
1-4
6.0%
1-5
4.1%
1-1
3.8%
0-0
2.0%
2-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).