Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →77.9%
Benfica
14.8%
Draw
7.3%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.33
Benfica
vs
0.54
Nacional
Markets
BTTS37.6%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.554.8%
Over 3.532.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.3%
1-0
13.5%
3-0
11.9%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
6.9%
1-1
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
5.3%
4-1
3.8%
0-1
3.4%
5-0
3.2%
2-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).