Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.9%
Famalicao
26.2%
Draw
23.0%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Famalicao
vs
0.84
Nacional
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.565.2%
Over 2.539.1%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.4%
1-1
11.9%
2-0
10.5%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.1%
0-2
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).