Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Derby
26.3%
Draw
33.0%
Wrexham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Derby
vs
1.39
Wrexham
Markets
BTTS60.5%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.556.8%
Over 3.534.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).