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AHT: 11CSV

18 Mar 2023 · 15:00

Burton

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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33.9%
Port Vale
26.5%
Draw
39.5%
Burton

Expected Goals (xG)

1.06

Port Vale

vs
1.18

Burton

Markets

BTTS44.1%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.564.4%
Over 2.538.8%
Over 3.518.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
13.6%
1-0
12.4%
1-1
12.2%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
7.8%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
4.2%
1-3
3.1%
0-3
2.9%
3-1
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).