Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.2%
Burnley
20.1%
Draw
4.8%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Burnley
vs
0.31
Watford
Markets
BTTS22.9%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.564.4%
Over 2.536.9%
Over 3.517.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
20.7%
2-0
19.8%
3-0
12.3%
0-0
12.0%
1-1
7.1%
2-1
6.1%
4-0
5.7%
3-1
3.8%
0-1
3.0%
5-0
2.1%
4-1
1.8%
1-2
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).