Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.9%
Erzgebirge Aue
23.3%
Draw
52.8%
Dresden
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
vs
2.03
Dresden
Markets
BTTS64.6%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.585.6%
Over 2.565.0%
Over 3.543.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
1-3
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
6.2%
0-1
6.2%
0-3
4.9%
0-0
4.4%
2-3
4.3%
1-0
3.7%
1-4
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).