Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.9%
Bournemouth
27.7%
Draw
17.3%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.51
Bournemouth
vs
0.74
Stoke
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.566.6%
Over 2.539.0%
Over 3.519.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
12.1%
0-0
11.4%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).