Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.4%
Nottingham Forest
28.6%
Draw
51.0%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
0.92
Nottingham Forest
vs
1.58
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.545.6%
Over 3.524.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
11.3%
0-2
10.2%
0-0
9.9%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
5.4%
1-3
4.9%
2-2
4.4%
2-0
3.5%
2-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).