Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.3%
Sociedad
22.3%
Draw
56.4%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Sociedad
vs
1.94
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS57.9%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.559.0%
Over 3.536.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
8.9%
1-3
6.4%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
1-0
5.0%
0-0
4.9%
2-3
3.6%
1-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).