Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.4%
Lugo
30.8%
Draw
46.8%
Numancia
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Lugo
vs
1.16
Numancia
Markets
BTTS34.4%
Over 0.584.5%
Over 1.555.3%
Over 2.528.5%
Over 3.511.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.2%
0-0
15.5%
1-1
12.5%
1-0
11.1%
0-2
10.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
4.4%
0-3
4.0%
2-0
3.8%
1-3
2.8%
2-2
2.6%
0-4
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).