Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.0%
Southampton
24.7%
Draw
21.3%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Southampton
vs
1.08
Watford
Markets
BTTS56.4%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.579.7%
Over 2.555.7%
Over 3.533.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
9.0%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
0-1
5.0%
3-2
3.3%
0-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).