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HHT: 11

17 Jan 2026 · 15:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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57.0%
Gil Vicente
25.2%
Draw
17.8%
Nacional

Expected Goals (xG)

1.74

Gil Vicente

vs
0.87

Nacional

Markets

BTTS49.0%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.548.6%
Over 3.526.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.0%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.9%
2-2
4.2%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).