Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.8%
Man United
26.2%
Draw
53.0%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07
Man United
vs
1.80
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS56.2%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.554.6%
Over 3.532.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
9.2%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
7.2%
1-3
5.9%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
1-0
4.6%
2-0
3.2%
2-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).