Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.6%
Almeria
18.5%
Draw
18.9%
Ceuta
Expected Goals (xG)
2.39
Almeria
vs
1.26
Ceuta
Markets
BTTS64.9%
Over 0.597.5%
Over 1.587.8%
Over 2.570.5%
Over 3.549.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.4%
1-1
7.8%
3-1
7.5%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
6.3%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
1-2
4.9%
3-2
4.7%
4-1
4.5%
4-0
3.5%
0-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).