Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →77.4%
Sp Braga
15.2%
Draw
7.4%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.62
Sp Braga
vs
0.72
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS48.2%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.585.2%
Over 2.564.9%
Over 3.542.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.1%
3-0
10.6%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.7%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.2%
4-0
6.9%
4-1
5.0%
0-0
4.0%
5-0
3.6%
2-2
3.2%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).