Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.6%
Mainz
21.6%
Draw
20.8%
Holstein Kiel
Expected Goals (xG)
2.18
Mainz
vs
1.26
Holstein Kiel
Markets
BTTS64.3%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.586.5%
Over 2.566.9%
Over 3.545.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.5%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.0%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
3-2
4.4%
0-0
3.9%
4-1
3.8%
0-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).