Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.1%
Liverpool
26.1%
Draw
29.8%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75
Liverpool
vs
1.42
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS64.0%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.583.9%
Over 2.561.3%
Over 3.539.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
1-0
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
5.3%
0-1
4.5%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
3.8%
3-0
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).