Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.8%
Mainz
27.9%
Draw
25.2%
M'gladbach
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Mainz
vs
1.03
M'gladbach
Markets
BTTS50.6%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.545.9%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
9.0%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.5%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).