Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.6%
Swindon
20.3%
Draw
18.1%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
2.00
Swindon
vs
0.97
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS53.2%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.556.9%
Over 3.534.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
10.7%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
10.0%
1-1
9.6%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
4.8%
0-0
4.8%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).