Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.8%
Nacional
27.3%
Draw
28.9%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Nacional
vs
0.97
Setubal
Markets
BTTS44.0%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.564.8%
Over 2.538.7%
Over 3.518.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.1%
1-1
12.5%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
10.1%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.0%
3-0
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).