Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.3%
Vallecano
32.5%
Draw
22.2%
Alaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
Vallecano
vs
0.68
Alaves
Markets
BTTS33.2%
Over 0.582.9%
Over 1.553.5%
Over 2.526.5%
Over 3.510.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.3%
0-0
17.1%
1-1
12.9%
0-1
11.1%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
4.3%
0-2
3.9%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
2.6%
2-2
2.4%
4-0
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).