Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.6%
Moreirense
20.2%
Draw
19.2%
Portimonense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02
Moreirense
vs
1.03
Portimonense
Markets
BTTS55.4%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.580.4%
Over 2.558.8%
Over 3.536.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
10.0%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
1-2
5.1%
0-0
4.3%
3-2
3.5%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).