Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.0%
Watford
29.1%
Draw
34.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Watford
vs
1.24
Derby
Markets
BTTS52.1%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.545.8%
Over 3.524.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.2%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
3.3%
3-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).