Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.5%
Ath Bilbao
29.9%
Draw
23.6%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Ath Bilbao
vs
0.82
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS40.8%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.562.4%
Over 2.534.9%
Over 3.516.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.2%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
12.7%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.2%
0-2
4.2%
3-1
3.5%
2-2
3.4%
1-3
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).