Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.2%
Valladolid
26.2%
Draw
17.6%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Valladolid
vs
0.69
Lugo
Markets
BTTS38.5%
Over 0.588.7%
Over 1.563.7%
Over 2.536.9%
Over 3.517.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.0%
2-0
12.5%
1-1
11.6%
0-0
11.3%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.0%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.2%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.0%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).