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21 Sept 2025 · 18:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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44.5%
Padova
31.5%
Draw
24.1%
Virtus Entella

Expected Goals (xG)

1.27

Padova

vs
0.86

Virtus Entella

Markets

BTTS42.8%
Over 0.586.8%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.535.8%
Over 3.516.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.3%
1-0
13.8%
0-0
13.2%
2-0
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.5%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
1.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).