Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.2%
Portimonense
23.9%
Draw
45.9%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Portimonense
vs
1.56
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS55.1%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.576.0%
Over 2.552.5%
Over 3.530.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.2%
1-0
8.1%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
4.0%
2-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).