Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.2%
Harrogate
28.3%
Draw
41.5%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
0.96
Harrogate
vs
1.18
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS42.2%
Over 0.588.7%
Over 1.562.5%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.4%
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.8%
0-0
11.3%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
3.8%
0-3
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
3-1
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).