Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.6%
Tondela
28.3%
Draw
45.1%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
Tondela
vs
1.22
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS40.0%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.560.9%
Over 2.534.4%
Over 3.515.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.9%
1-1
12.5%
0-0
12.0%
1-0
11.3%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.8%
2-2
3.4%
1-3
3.2%
3-1
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).