Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.2%
Monza
22.8%
Draw
12.0%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.93
Monza
vs
0.71
Spal
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.2%
1-0
12.8%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
8.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.1%
4-0
4.1%
1-2
3.5%
2-2
3.4%
4-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).