Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.2%
Malaga
23.4%
Draw
34.4%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Malaga
vs
1.48
Castellon
Markets
BTTS62.4%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.582.0%
Over 2.560.7%
Over 3.538.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.3%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
3-1
4.9%
0-2
4.7%
0-0
4.2%
1-3
3.9%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).