Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.0%
Carlisle
19.3%
Draw
12.7%
Tamworth
Expected Goals (xG)
2.32
Carlisle
vs
0.92
Tamworth
Markets
BTTS55.0%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.584.1%
Over 2.562.9%
Over 3.540.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.1%
1-0
8.4%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
4.7%
0-0
4.6%
2-2
4.5%
4-1
4.4%
1-2
3.9%
3-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).