Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.7%
Mansfield
12.9%
Draw
8.5%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
2.81
Mansfield
vs
0.82
Newport County
Markets
BTTS52.5%
Over 0.597.6%
Over 1.587.5%
Over 2.570.4%
Over 3.549.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.4%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
8.1%
1-0
7.7%
4-0
6.9%
1-1
5.9%
4-1
5.7%
5-0
3.9%
2-2
3.5%
3-2
3.3%
5-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).