Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.1%
Derby
26.0%
Draw
37.8%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Derby
vs
1.53
Southampton
Markets
BTTS61.8%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.558.3%
Over 3.535.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
0-0
5.8%
0-2
5.7%
2-0
5.4%
1-3
4.3%
3-1
4.1%
2-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).