Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.5%
Burgos
27.3%
Draw
36.2%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Burgos
vs
1.20
Santander
Markets
BTTS49.0%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.569.3%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).