Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.5%
Santa Clara
33.1%
Draw
20.4%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Santa Clara
vs
0.56
Tondela
Markets
BTTS26.9%
Over 0.579.9%
Over 1.546.4%
Over 2.521.2%
Over 3.57.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
21.5%
0-0
20.1%
0-1
12.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
6.0%
3-0
3.6%
1-2
3.3%
0-2
3.2%
3-1
2.0%
2-2
1.7%
4-0
0.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).