⚽ FootballData
1 – 2
AHT: 00CSV

27 Sept 2025 · 16:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
46.5%
Santa Clara
33.1%
Draw
20.4%
Tondela

Expected Goals (xG)

1.02

Santa Clara

vs
0.56

Tondela

Markets

BTTS26.9%
Over 0.579.9%
Over 1.546.4%
Over 2.521.2%
Over 3.57.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
21.5%
0-0
20.1%
0-1
12.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
6.0%
3-0
3.6%
1-2
3.3%
0-2
3.2%
3-1
2.0%
2-2
1.7%
4-0
0.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).