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AHT: 11CSV

06 May 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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39.3%
Pacos Ferreira
30.9%
Draw
29.8%
Tondela

Expected Goals (xG)

1.02

Pacos Ferreira

vs
0.84

Tondela

Markets

BTTS35.8%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.554.9%
Over 2.528.6%
Over 3.511.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
16.4%
0-0
15.0%
0-1
13.7%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
2.9%
3-0
2.7%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
1.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).