Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.6%
Manchester City
11.7%
Draw
3.7%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.95
Manchester City
vs
0.55
Watford
Markets
BTTS41.0%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.587.2%
Over 2.568.0%
Over 3.546.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.1%
3-0
12.9%
4-0
9.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.3%
3-1
7.1%
5-0
5.6%
1-1
5.6%
4-1
5.3%
0-0
3.7%
5-1
3.1%
2-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).