Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Watford
30.3%
Draw
25.2%
Portsmouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Watford
vs
0.92
Portsmouth
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.566.4%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
11.8%
2-0
9.2%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.9%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).